Watching Laura and Marco

 Hi Everyone!

The Atlantic has gotten busy as advertised, with two tropical storms in the Caribbean today: Laura and Marco. I'll spend a little bit of time on the forecast for each. I'll start with Marco because although it formed later, it will likely impact the U.S. first.

Tropical Storm Marco

Tropical storm Marco is currently over the Northwestern Caribbean, heading for the Yucatan Channel. It is strengthening right now, and might very well become a hurricane today.

Image from www.weathernerds.org

Marco should weaken some in the Gulf due to wind shear, but could still impact the northern Gulf Coast as a strong tropical storm. The storm could impact southern Louisiana if it stays stronger, but might bend back towards the west into Texas if it's a weak storm.

Image from www.tropicaltidbits.com

The current official forecast from NHC brings Marco in NE Texas as a tropical storm late Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Laura

Tropical Storm Laura is near Puerto Rico this morning. It has been poorly organized for a while, but might be trying to get stronger today.

Image from www.weathernerds.org

Laura has been a tricky storm to forecast. For a while, the models were suggesting the storm would track north of the Caribbean Islands and towards South Florida or the Florida Keys. But because of some changes in storm structure and large-scale wind patterns, it looks like a track along the Caribbean Islands and then into the Gulf of Mexico is likely. 

Image from www.weathernerds.org

The intensity forecast is tricky (as is often the case). Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico should be very, very favorable for the storm to intensify. However, it will first have to pass over the Caribbean islands of Hispaniola and Cuba, which are mountainous in spots and can disrupt circulations. The longer the storm has over the Gulf of Mexico after it moves off Cuba, the stronger it will likely be. Anywhere from the FL Panhandle to the Texas coasts should be keeping a very close eye on Laura. The official NHC forecast for Laura brings it into Louisiana as a hurricane Wednesday. This can change, so be vigilant!

Image from www.nhc.noaa.gov

Will Laura and Marco Interact With Each Other?

Some earlier forecasts had suggested that Laura and Marco would get close enough to "spin around" each other in what is known as the "Fujiwhara Effect".  This is still possible, but seems less likely today. That being said, there is still enough uncertainty with both storms that residents all along the Gulf Coast should start making hurricane plans!

Andy