Hi all,
As expected, the Atlantic is starting to get busy as we approach peak hurricane season. The pattern of tropical convection (thunderstorms) is shifting to favor the Atlantic, so we are likely going to see quite a few tropical disturbances to watch over the next 3-4 weeks, with a good chance that several of these will become hurricanes.
There are already a couple of weak storms out there. Tropical Storm Kyle formed far in the North Atlantic and is now racing out to sea. Tropical Storm Josephine formed in the Atlantic, but strong vertical wind shear is hindering it. Computer models indicate that this wind shear will go away this week and next, making the environment favorable for development of some storms.
The National Hurricane Center is already highlighting two areas of interest: one wave east of the Lesser Antilles that will be worth watching as it moves into the Caribbean this week, and another wave just off Africa that could develop as it moves into the Atlantic this week. Neither of these is an imminent threat at all, but both are a good reminder to have your hurricane plan ready anywhere that's vulnerable to hurricanes. We've already seen Isaias cause a lot of problems in the mid-Atlantic and New England this year, and that was just the "warmup" for the rest of the season.
Image: www.nhc.noaa.gov
I'll try to post and/or share NHC updates as these and other systems potentially become more coherent threats. Stay safe everyone!
Andy
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