Atlantic Starting to Get a Little Busier

 Hello Everyone!

It's now August 9 (hard to believe!) and we're getting closer to the peak of Hurricane season. 

In addition, a large-scale atmospheric wave called the MJO is moving into a phase that supports Atlantic storm formation. Thankfully there are no major imminent threats, although there is a wave near the Lesser Antilles Islands, "Invest 94L", that bears watching. 

Image from www.weathernerds.org

This wave may become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two. A combination of wind shear from strong upper-level winds, dry air in the upper atmosphere, and land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should keep it from getting too strong, but it's worth keeping an eye on. 

The plot below (from Tropical Tidbits) is an "ensemble", or a bunch of slightly different runs of the same model. This gives an idea of some of the different possible outcomes for this wave.

As you can see, most "ensemble members" track the storm near or along the Caribbean islands and generally towards the Florida Straits, but keep it weak due to some of the obstacles I mentioned above. So, hopefully, it won't be a very strong storm near Florida, but it's too early to say for sure. Either way, rain chances will likely increase this weekend for South and Central Florida.

Thankfully, no huge threats out there at the moment, but things are starting to heat up, so keep an eye on the tropics, and as always make sure you go to www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest official information!

Andy

Tropical Storm Elsa Approaching Florida

 Good morning everyone!

As expected, Elsa is approaching the West Coast of Florida as a strong tropical storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. 

Radar shows that the storm is lopsided, also expected. Most of the heavy rainbands are to the east and northeast of the center, due to some strong upper-level winds and dry air to the west of the storm. This is good because it will keep the storm from strengthening too much over the warm Gulf, but it means much of the West Coast of Florida and inland parts of the Peninsula will see some nasty weather from these bands today.

Radar Image out of Key West this Morning

Zoomed out Radar View

Tropical storm warnings are up for most of the Florida West Coast and Big Bend, with Tropical Storm watches up west to near Apalachicola. There is also a Hurricane Watch up from near Tampa to the Big Bend, as it is possible Elsa could reattain Category 1 hurricane status before making landfall. Impacts will be similar no matter what the official classification is. There are also Storm Surge Warnings up for most of the Florida West Coast. Water levels 3-5 feet above normal high tides are possible.

NHC Forecast Valid 8 am Tuesday, July 7, 2021

The main threats from Elsa today are:

1. Heavy rain over much of the Florida Peninsula.

2. 3-5 feet of Storm Surge over the West Coast of Florida. This could cause some problems depending on the timing relative to high tide.

3. Isolated tornadoes over the Florida Peninsula.

4. 60-70 mph wind gusts, especially near the coasts, causing some spotty power outages.

Be safe and hunker down!

Andy

Elsa's March North Continues

 Good Morning Everyone!

Elsa is continuing to move along this morning, now just southwest of Cuba. The storm has 65 mph winds (strong tropical storm). It will likely weaken a little bit when it moves over Cuba, but should still be a moderate to strong tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Image from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Elsa is forecast to move along or probably just offshore the west coast of Florida. The storm will be "sheared" from the west, such that most of the heaviest rain will be east and northeast of the center. This can be seen in an example forecast from the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) for Tuesday evening:

Image from www.weathernerds.org

Even if the shear keeps the storm from intensifying significantly, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible along the West Coast of Florida and nearby inland areas throughout much of the day Tuesday, and into North Florida on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are up for much of the West Coast of Florida. 

Image from www.nhc.noaa.gov

Stay safe everyone!

Andy

Elsa Moving Towards Cuba

Elsa is Moving Towards Cuba as a Tropical Storm

 Happy 4th of July, everyone!

Just a quick update on Elsa. It's still a tropical storm, now moving just to the north of Jamaica. It will pass south of Cuba through the day today, then move north into Cuba and the Florida straits on Monday, and be near Florida by Tuesday.

The storm hasn't strengthened since yesterday - it's still pretty lopsided. There's a chance it could strengthen a little bit before it reaches Cuba, but right now the structure doesn't make me think it'll intensify quickly.

Image from www.weathernerds.org

I continue to think the impacts to Florida will be mostly heavy rain and some gusty winds on Tuesday, especially along the West Coast and inland areas. We may get some weather here in SE Florida, but it looks like it might move a little further away from us.

I'll update if anything changes - have a great holiday!