Atlantic Starting to Get a Little Busier

 Hello Everyone!

It's now August 9 (hard to believe!) and we're getting closer to the peak of Hurricane season. 

In addition, a large-scale atmospheric wave called the MJO is moving into a phase that supports Atlantic storm formation. Thankfully there are no major imminent threats, although there is a wave near the Lesser Antilles Islands, "Invest 94L", that bears watching. 

Image from www.weathernerds.org

This wave may become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two. A combination of wind shear from strong upper-level winds, dry air in the upper atmosphere, and land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should keep it from getting too strong, but it's worth keeping an eye on. 

The plot below (from Tropical Tidbits) is an "ensemble", or a bunch of slightly different runs of the same model. This gives an idea of some of the different possible outcomes for this wave.

As you can see, most "ensemble members" track the storm near or along the Caribbean islands and generally towards the Florida Straits, but keep it weak due to some of the obstacles I mentioned above. So, hopefully, it won't be a very strong storm near Florida, but it's too early to say for sure. Either way, rain chances will likely increase this weekend for South and Central Florida.

Thankfully, no huge threats out there at the moment, but things are starting to heat up, so keep an eye on the tropics, and as always make sure you go to www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest official information!

Andy