2020 Hurricane Season Getting Ready to Kick Into Gear
Hi Everyone! I haven't posted on here in a while, but this is what I will be using to communicate during the 2020 Hurricane Season. I'll try to share these posts on Facebook, but want to have something for those that don't use that platform.2020 Hurricane Season So Far
The early part of Hurricane Season has actually been pretty active so far. We have had four named storms: 3 off the east coast of the US and one in the Gulf. Tropical Storm Cristobal caused some flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi, but overall the storms have been fairly inconsequential, as is typically the case for June storms. With Tropical Storm Dolly forming in the North Atlantic last week, that was the 3rd-earliest "D" storm ever.
As you can see in the graph above, we are a long way from the peak of the Hurricane Season.
Seasonal Forecasts
Quite a few groups are calling for an active Atlantic Hurricane Season, including the famous Colorado State University ones initiated by my academic great-great-grand-advisor Bill Gray and continued by Phil Klotzbach.
There are other groups that do good seasonal forecasts, including my friends from FSU, Ryan Truchelut and Erica Staehling, for their company WeatherTiger.
There are a lot of factors that go into the seasonal forecast, but the main ones right now are the fact that Atlantic waters are warm, and the Equatorial Pacific is cooling off (heading towards what we call La Niña), both of which favor more Atlantic storms.
That being said, the total number of storms isn't that important for you. It could be a busy year with no big hits (2010) or a generally quiet year with one lethal storm (1992 with Andrew). So be ready no matter what!
Preparedness
I have to say, the busy seasonal outlook has made me even more urgent to finalize my hurricane plan. If you live in an evacuation zone (as we do), make sure you know where you would go and what you would bring with you if you evacuate. Even if you're not in an evacuation zone, make sure you are ready for the issues a hurricane can bring, including power outages and property damage.
Where Should I get Information
As you probably know, there is always misinformation flying around social media, especially during a big event, and this will be magnified with the ongoing pandemic. The best place to go for hurricane information is the National Hurricane Center:
Local news stations are also good sources of information, and listening to local officials will likely be even more critical this year.
How Will the Pandemic Affect Things?
The bottom line is I don't really know, but it certainly won't make things easier, particularly as many Southern States are experiencing COVID-19 resurgences right as hurricane season kicks into gear.
I will say this: hurricanes can be tough to predict, but we know the threat they offer. So don't let politicization or misinformation stop you from listening to officials trying to keep you and your neighbors safe. Dealing with a hurricane or multiple hurricanes during an ongoing pandemic will require a high level of cooperation and care for our communities, which we can all be a part of.
Let me know if you have any questions - always happy to talk about hurricanes!
Andy
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