Tropical Storm Karen Forms, Worth Keeping an Eye On

Hello Everyone!

A new tropical storm, Karen, has formed in the Eastern Caribbean, near Trinidad and Tobago. 


Image From www.nhc.noaa.gov

The storm is forecast to move to the northwest and then north, probably passing near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in a couple days. From there, the track could get tricky.  It's possible the storm could scoot out to sea, but there is a big ridge of high pressure forecast to form to the north.


Image From www.tropicaltidbits.com


If Karen gets under this ridge, it could get forced back to the west or southwest.  This is reflected in some of the ECMWF ensemble solutions.  So this could be something for the Bahamas and Florida to watch by next weekend.


Image From www.weathernerds.org

So it's too early to worry too much, as a lot could change, but this could be one to watch!

Remember to check www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest official information.

Andy

The Atlantic Tropics are Coming to Life Again

Hello Everyone,

After a short break post-Dorian, the Atlantic tropics are coming to life again. 

Image From www.nhc.noaa.gov

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting two areas of concern.

Bahamas Wave (Invest 95L)
The system of more immediate concern is a trough of low pressure in the Bahamas.  It is not a tropical depression yet, but is forecast to become one soon.  Satellite imagery shows a broad area of showers and thunderstorms trying to coalesce.

Image From www.weathernerds.org

The forecast for this system is tricky. Some models bring it across the state as a weak tropical storm.  Others keep it offshore of Florida, but turn it into a significant hurricane that could threaten the U.S. East Coast.  Either way, the Bahamas appear likely to get more wind and rain this week - not nearly as bad as Dorian, but something they don't need.  Due to the uncertainty in the forecast, people along both the Gulf and East coasts need to keep a close eye on this as we head towards the weekend.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to check out the area this afternoon.

Image From www.weathernerds.org

Atlantic Wave

There is another wave way out in the Atlantic that is moving towards the Caribbean.  It may not develop for several days, but models show a chance of it becoming a tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean, and following the path of several storms this year it could move towards the Southwest Atlantic afterwards.  This is still a long way out, but it's a good reminder to be ready as the peak of the hurricane season looks to be a busy one!

As always, get official hurricane info from the National Hurricane Center at:

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy

Dorian Stalls Over the Bahamas, Will Pass Very Close to the Florida East Coast and then the Carolinas

Hello everyone,

Finally back from flying into Hurricane Dorian from last Monday to Saturday.  It was pretty insane to see the storm go from a tiny, weak system way out into the Atlantic to a monstrous Category 5 over the Bahamas.  Yesterday, it reached winds of 185 mph, tied for the second-strongest hurricane in Atlantic history.

The storm currently has winds of 165 mph (still a Category 5) and has slowed to a crawl, and is currently basically halted right over Grand Bahama.



This is awful news for the island of Grand Bahama, and nasty weather is still battering Great Abaco where Dorian caused devastation yesterday.  Keep those people in your prayers - they will need all sorts of help when Dorian clears out.

U.S. Impact

The storm is currently forecast to take a track just, and I mean just, offshore of the Eastern Florida coast.


Image from www.nhc.noaa.gov

It would not take much for the strong eyewall winds, storm surge, or even the eye of the storm to actually directly impact the East Coast, especially in the area from around Jupiter up through Jacksonville.  Hurricane watches and warnings have been issued for much of the Florida East Coast.  The storm will then pass very close to or over the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.  Notice that the NHC cone even suggests there could be impacts further up the Atlantic coast.

Notice that the GFS (American) weather model is showing a huge area of rain in excess of 6 inches all along the East Coast of the U.S., so flooding (especially when exacerbated by strong onshore flow) will be a problem for many areas.


Image from www.tropicaltidbits.com (Levi Cowan)

The impacts to inland Florida are *hopefully* looking better, but I wouldn't let your guard down until the storm clears.  And many areas of coastal Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are already under evacuation orders, so if you live there, make sure to listen to local authorities.

I'll keep everyone updated as Dorian's U.S. approach comes into view!

Remember to get official hurricane information at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Andy