Tropical Storm Dorian Weak for Now. Watch and be ready!

Hello everyone!

I'm writing this from St. Croix, after the NOAA plane finished our first mission into Tropical Storm Dorian last night.

The storm is still fairly disorganized.  It looks somewhat impressive on satellite, but is fairly disorganized "under the hood".  This is why aircraft missions are important!

Infrared Satellite Image of Dorian (Image Credit Levi Cowan, www.tropicaltidbits.com)

The storm is currently forecast to stay weak for a few days, but could pose a flooding threat to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and other nearby islands.

The official forecast brings the storm (as a strong tropical storm) towards Florida by late this weekend.

NHC Official Forecast Cone and Watches/Warnings for Dorian

There is still a lot of wiggle room for these forecasts, however.  Given the current weak state, Dorian could just fizzle out when it gets close to the Dominican Republic.  However, if it holds together, the atmosphere in the Bahamas looks favorable for strengthening, and there is a chance it could be a hurricane by the time it gets near FL.  This is reflected in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts - some of them kill Dorian or keep it quite weak, while others have it strengthening and hitting Florida or even going into the Gulf.

ECMWF Ensemble Track/Intensity Forecasts (credit: www.weathernerds.org, Matt Onderlinde)

Bottom Line

It's still too early to determine Dorian's impact to the mainland US.  Impacts of at least flooding rain appear likely in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic (and later the Bahamas), so prepare accordingly there.  People from the Carolinas through the Gulf (and especially in FL) should make sure your hurricane plans are in place, and monitor notices from local experts and authorities.

As always, get official hurricane forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy