Tropical Storm Dorian Could Pose a Threat - be Ready Just in Case

Good morning everyone!

As I posted last week, the Atlantic tropics have come to life a bit.  Tropical Storm Dorian is moving towards the Caribbean, and currently has 60 mph winds.


Image From www.weathernerds.org

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings Dorian to the Northwest, and near or over the island of Hispaniola in a couple of days.  People in the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti need to be ready for tropical storm or even hurricane conditions.


Image From www.nhc.noaa.gov

This island interaction is one of the trickiest parts of the forecast for Dorian.  If it goes right over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the small storm could get torn up and significantly weaken.  If it mostly avoids the island to the north, it could stay stronger and be a problem for the Bahamas, and even potentially Florida by next weekend.

Image from www.weathernerds.org

The image above is called an "ensemble" plot - it's a bunch of slightly different versions of the same model, in this case the European model.  You can see the ones that take Dorian towards Hispaniola mostly die out there, while the ones that track closer to Puerto Rico show it surviving and potentially strengthening in the Bahamas.

What should I do?

1. Follow official Dorian forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov

2. If you have interests in the Caribbean Islands (especially Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic), be ready for a strong tropical storm (at least) impact in a couple of days.  Flooding and strong winds are possible.  Make preparations now.

3. For those in the Bahamas or Florida, it's not certain that Dorian will impact us, but it's best to be ready.  Check now and make sure your hurricane kit is ready.  Better to be safe than sorry! Dorian could be nothing; it could be a threat by the weekend.

Hurricane Hunter Flights

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be sampling Dorian over the next few days, to get a better idea of its structure and where it might go.  I will be on the NOAA plane, with the first flight reaching the storm tonight.

I'll try to post an update when I can; it depends on how exactly the flights work out.

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy