Tropical Storm Dorian Weak for Now. Watch and be ready!

Hello everyone!

I'm writing this from St. Croix, after the NOAA plane finished our first mission into Tropical Storm Dorian last night.

The storm is still fairly disorganized.  It looks somewhat impressive on satellite, but is fairly disorganized "under the hood".  This is why aircraft missions are important!

Infrared Satellite Image of Dorian (Image Credit Levi Cowan, www.tropicaltidbits.com)

The storm is currently forecast to stay weak for a few days, but could pose a flooding threat to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and other nearby islands.

The official forecast brings the storm (as a strong tropical storm) towards Florida by late this weekend.

NHC Official Forecast Cone and Watches/Warnings for Dorian

There is still a lot of wiggle room for these forecasts, however.  Given the current weak state, Dorian could just fizzle out when it gets close to the Dominican Republic.  However, if it holds together, the atmosphere in the Bahamas looks favorable for strengthening, and there is a chance it could be a hurricane by the time it gets near FL.  This is reflected in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts - some of them kill Dorian or keep it quite weak, while others have it strengthening and hitting Florida or even going into the Gulf.

ECMWF Ensemble Track/Intensity Forecasts (credit: www.weathernerds.org, Matt Onderlinde)

Bottom Line

It's still too early to determine Dorian's impact to the mainland US.  Impacts of at least flooding rain appear likely in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic (and later the Bahamas), so prepare accordingly there.  People from the Carolinas through the Gulf (and especially in FL) should make sure your hurricane plans are in place, and monitor notices from local experts and authorities.

As always, get official hurricane forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy

Tropical Storm Dorian Could Pose a Threat - be Ready Just in Case

Good morning everyone!

As I posted last week, the Atlantic tropics have come to life a bit.  Tropical Storm Dorian is moving towards the Caribbean, and currently has 60 mph winds.


Image From www.weathernerds.org

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings Dorian to the Northwest, and near or over the island of Hispaniola in a couple of days.  People in the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti need to be ready for tropical storm or even hurricane conditions.


Image From www.nhc.noaa.gov

This island interaction is one of the trickiest parts of the forecast for Dorian.  If it goes right over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the small storm could get torn up and significantly weaken.  If it mostly avoids the island to the north, it could stay stronger and be a problem for the Bahamas, and even potentially Florida by next weekend.

Image from www.weathernerds.org

The image above is called an "ensemble" plot - it's a bunch of slightly different versions of the same model, in this case the European model.  You can see the ones that take Dorian towards Hispaniola mostly die out there, while the ones that track closer to Puerto Rico show it surviving and potentially strengthening in the Bahamas.

What should I do?

1. Follow official Dorian forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov

2. If you have interests in the Caribbean Islands (especially Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic), be ready for a strong tropical storm (at least) impact in a couple of days.  Flooding and strong winds are possible.  Make preparations now.

3. For those in the Bahamas or Florida, it's not certain that Dorian will impact us, but it's best to be ready.  Check now and make sure your hurricane kit is ready.  Better to be safe than sorry! Dorian could be nothing; it could be a threat by the weekend.

Hurricane Hunter Flights

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be sampling Dorian over the next few days, to get a better idea of its structure and where it might go.  I will be on the NOAA plane, with the first flight reaching the storm tonight.

I'll try to post an update when I can; it depends on how exactly the flights work out.

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy

Atlantic Waking Up a Little Bit

Hello Everyone!

After a very quiet start to the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, things are starting to pick up a little bit.  This is not surprising, as we are getting close to the peak of hurricane season, as this chart from NOAA shows:

There are a couple of specific areas worth watching right now, although neither is a huge concern yet.  The first is an area of low pressure off the Florida Coast.


Image from www.weathernerds.org

This system is forecast to develop into a Tropical Storm as it moves to the NE away from Florida early next week.  It will probably bring some heavy rain to the state this weekend.  It is worth watching in the Northeast, but hopefully won't be a major problem.

Image from www.weathernerds.org

The other system worth watching is a tropical wave way out in the Central Atlantic.  Satellite imagery shows a circulation trying to form.

Image from www.tropicaltidbits.com

This system is still several days from impacting any land areas.  The Leeward/Windward Islands and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should keep an eye on it, but we still have time to watch and see if it develops into a tropical system.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened to a depression way out over the North Atlantic, and is not a threat.  Some other strong waves are forecast to move off the coast of Africa over the coming week, which we will have to keep an eye on.

Bottom line - things are starting to pick up as they often do this time of year, so just make sure you are ready if you live in a hurricane-prone area! I'll update more if a system becomes a bigger threat.

Andy