After a few quiet(ish) weeks in the tropics after Florence and Gordon, some late-season action appears to be on the table. An area of low pressure in the Caribbean near the Honduras/Nicaragua border may develop into a tropical storm as it lifts into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and early next week. Here's a current satellite picture (from www.weathernerds.org):
The system is currently asymmetric, sheared by strong upper-level winds. However, this shear may weaken some as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing a tropical system to develop. If a storm does develop, models indicate it will likely move towards the northern/eastern Gulf Coast, with the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend looking most likely at the moment. This is a common track for October storms forming in this region.
The figure above was plotted using the website (https://www.coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/), and shows all October storms that were Tropical Depressions/Storms in the southern Gulf in October. Most of these systems end up traveling towards the North Central or Northeast Gulf.
Still a lot of uncertainty as to whether and when something will form, but it's a good time to make sure your hurricane plans are still ready to go along the Gulf Coast. The season still has a ways to go!
Andy
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