Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 Forms - Soon to be TS Michael

The area of interest in the NW Caribbean has been classified as "Potential Tropical Cyclone 14".  The "Potential Tropical Cyclone" classification indicates that a system is not quite a TD or TS yet, but is expected to form into one soon, and NHC writes advisories and issues watches and warnings.  The system will likely continue to grow, and may become Tropical Storm Michael by tomorrow.

The system is currently spanning much of the NW Caribbean, and slowly getting better organized (satellite image from www.weathernerds.org):



Here is the initial forecast from NHC for the track of the system:



Right now the forecast is for the system to be a tropical storm at landfall, but it certainly has a chance to become a hurricane, and residents of the northern Gulf Coast should prepare accordingly.

The system will likely make landfall Wednesday morning or afternoon somewhere between far SE Louisiana and the FL Big Bend.  Right now, models are honing in on the FL Panhandle region, but until the system is fully formed the tracks will be somewhat uncertain.

This has the potential to be a fairly "short-fuse" storm - i.e., not a lot of time between when it forms and when it hits.  And it could strengthen more than shown here.  So be ready if you live anywhere along the Northern or Eastern Gulf!

Andy