Michael Threatens North Florida, Get Ready!

Michael is looking like a significant threat to the Northeast Gulf Coast.  The storm is a strong tropical storm for now, likely to be a hurricane sometime later today.



The storm is forecast to be close to major hurricane status when it impacts the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend, probably on Wednesday:



Hurricane watches are already up for all of the Panhandle and Big Bend.

Some of the model forecasts for the storm are quite concerning:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049246905564372993

The European weather model is forecasting over 100 mph wind gusts to extend inland all the way to Tallahassee. If this happens, it would be a significant problem in terms of power outages, and damage to trees, roofs, and even some structures.

I urge everyone in the watch areas, and well inland, to finalize preparations today.  The storm will probably make landfall sometime Wednesday late morning or afternoon, but nasty weather could arrive as soon as tomorrow night:



As the forecast shows, Michael may also impact the Carolinas with wind and rain after moving inland, which is not a welcome situation after the devastating flooding of Florence last month.  This storm should be moving much more quickly, but even a few more inches of rainfall could be extremely problematic.

Here are some preparedness links:

National Hurricane Center

Florida Evacuation Zones

FSU Hurricane History and Preparedness

City of Tallahassee Hurricane Preparedness

Please take this storm seriously, and be safe.

Andy

Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 Forms - Soon to be TS Michael

The area of interest in the NW Caribbean has been classified as "Potential Tropical Cyclone 14".  The "Potential Tropical Cyclone" classification indicates that a system is not quite a TD or TS yet, but is expected to form into one soon, and NHC writes advisories and issues watches and warnings.  The system will likely continue to grow, and may become Tropical Storm Michael by tomorrow.

The system is currently spanning much of the NW Caribbean, and slowly getting better organized (satellite image from www.weathernerds.org):



Here is the initial forecast from NHC for the track of the system:



Right now the forecast is for the system to be a tropical storm at landfall, but it certainly has a chance to become a hurricane, and residents of the northern Gulf Coast should prepare accordingly.

The system will likely make landfall Wednesday morning or afternoon somewhere between far SE Louisiana and the FL Big Bend.  Right now, models are honing in on the FL Panhandle region, but until the system is fully formed the tracks will be somewhat uncertain.

This has the potential to be a fairly "short-fuse" storm - i.e., not a lot of time between when it forms and when it hits.  And it could strengthen more than shown here.  So be ready if you live anywhere along the Northern or Eastern Gulf!

Andy

Tropical Trouble Ahead in the Gulf?

Hello Everyone!

After a few quiet(ish) weeks in the tropics after Florence and Gordon, some late-season action appears to be on the table.  An area of low pressure in the Caribbean near the Honduras/Nicaragua border may develop into a tropical storm as it lifts into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and early next week.  Here's a current satellite picture (from www.weathernerds.org):



The system is currently asymmetric, sheared by strong upper-level winds.  However, this shear may weaken some as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing a tropical system to develop.  If a storm does develop, models indicate it will likely move towards the northern/eastern Gulf Coast, with the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend looking most likely at the moment.  This is a common track for October storms forming in this region. 

The figure above was plotted using the website (https://www.coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/), and shows all October storms that were Tropical Depressions/Storms in the southern Gulf in October.  Most of these systems end up traveling towards the North Central or Northeast Gulf. 

Still a lot of uncertainty as to whether and when something will form, but it's a good time to make sure your hurricane plans are still ready to go along the Gulf Coast.  The season still has a ways to go!

Andy