Hello everyone,
One of the most well-known forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity is from Colorado State University. It was started by the late Dr. Bill Gray (my academic great-great grand-advisor), and continued by Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell. They issue forecasts at the start of hurricane season, and update them again at the beginning of August, prior to the typically active part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (the season runs June-November, but the most active period by far is, on average, mid-August through mid-October).
This year's seasonal forecast from CSU has been released. It is available at:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/08/2018-08.pdf
You can read the details there if you are curious. Basically, there are a few key points.
1) The Atlantic is cooler than usual.
2) The Pacific is warming, heading towards a possible El Niño, which causes wind shear (see my first blog) that hampers Atlantic hurricanes.
3) Because of 1) and 2), the Atlantic is expected to be less active than usual this year. In fact, CSU's model predicts some of the lowest activity since the very quiet years of the early 1990s.
4) ****This is the most important reminder*****. Despite seasonal activity probably being below-average, it is impossible to predict an individual hurricane this far out. Hurricane Andrew occurred in 1992, in a year that was otherwise very inactive. So keep your guard up as we head into the peak of the season.
Let me know if you have any questions!
Andy
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