Hi all,
I'm going to be posting here with updates during Hurricane Season this year!
Right now, the Atlantic is quiet. That's pretty typical for July. As you can see in the picture below from NOAA, the Atlantic season peaks around September 10, with mid-August through mid-October being the typical most active time.
Why is the Atlantic so quiet right now? I won't get too much into the scientific details, but there is a lot of dry air (actually coming off Africa) out over the Atlantic and Caribbean. There is also a lot of what is called "wind shear". Wind shear is when the winds near the surface are very different from the winds up around the level where planes fly. This graphic below (from the University of Illinois) explains it well. When there is weak shear, thunderstorms can grow upright (good for hurricanes). When there is strong shear (and especially when there is also dry air), thunderstorms have a hard time growing.
The Atlantic has also been cooler than normal so far this year, although that (and the wind shear!) can change quickly. It may be a less active season than infamous 2017, but you can still get really bad storms even in "quiet" years (Andrew in 1992 was a good example). Speaking of Andrew - the place we live now (see the pushpin in the picture below) is right where the full wrath of Andrew was felt (although the house we are renting wasn't built until 2004). Kind of a weird feeling.
So the bottom line is, the Atlantic is quiet for now, but don't let your guard down as we head towards peak season. I'll post updates as things heat up. Here are some other good links for hurricane info:
Feel free to contact me if you have any questions, at andy.hazelton.1003@gmail.com.
Andy Hazelton
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