Potential Tropical Cyclone 9: What's Up With That?

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9

Good Evening Everyone!

You've probably seen we have a tropical system called "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9".  If this is confusing, just know it's a classification the National Hurricane Center added recently to be able to issue their warnings and forecasts for systems that haven't quite yet met all the criteria for being a "tropical cyclone" (i.e. tropical depression/storm).  In this case, PTC 9 does not have a full wind circulation.  It's still a big tropical wave. But it's close to being a tropical storm, and the impacts are the same for now.

Where is the Storm Now?

Image: https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

The system is currently near Puerto Rico, and will move over or near Hispaniola tonight and tomorrow. This adds uncertainty to the forecast, because mountainous islands like that can disrupt forming tropical systems.  But this one is so large that some piece of it seems likely to survive and form a tropical storm soon.  We're just not 100% sure where.

Where is the Storm Going and How Strong Will it Be?

Image: www.weathernerds.org

There is still some uncertainty in the track, because of how big the storm is and the lack of a well-defined center. This can be seen in the "ensemble" set of forecasts above. It is likely to be in the Bahamas and then near Florida this weekend. How close it gets to Florida is tricky. Thankfully, a stronger storm is more likely to turn a little earlier. However, some impact, especially along the East Coast, is possible.  So have your hurricane plan in place just in case. And locations all along the East Coast should be ready as well, because even if PTC9 stays offshore Florida it could possibly impact the East Coast later.

If the storm moves over Hispaniola and Cuba for a while, it may stay weaker, but if it stays offshore, it does have a chance to strengthen into a hurricane.  While it may not be the most likely outcome, it's probably the best bet for people along the East Coast of Florida and northward to prepare for the possibility of a hurricane impact this weekend.

What's the Timing?

Based on current forecasts (which can change!), here's when different places can expect to start seeing impacts, depending on the track of the storm. So keep this in mind as you prepare.

-Bahamas: by tomorrow evening and Friday

-Florida: by late Friday and Saturday

-Carolinas: Saturday into Sunday

-Mid Atlantic: Sunday into Monday

This is a quickly changing situation, so as always check www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest updates!

Andy