Hurricane Isaias Gets Ready for a Run at the East Coast

Hurricane Isaias

Isaias is a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph at the moment, moving through the Bahamas. It is a bit ragged due to some wind shear and dry air, but still packs a punch especially on the northeast side of the center.

Image: www.weathernerds.org

Here is the official NHC forecast for Isaias.  Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Bahamas, with Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast.  Tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of the Florida Coast too, including Miami.

Image: www.nhc.noaa.gov

Possible Scenarios for Isaias:

1 - Close Brush or Hit on the Florida Coast

It's possible Isaias could come close to or even move over the Florida coast. It would probably be a little weaker in this scenario, but this would increase impacts in Florida obviously. This would be better news for folks further up the East Coast.

2 - Misses Florida, Goes up the East Coast

The current forecast keeps Isaias just east of Florida, and moves up the East Coast towards the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.  In this scenario, there would be a bit less weather on the East Coast of Florida, but this could allow more strengthening and would be worse news for the rest of the U.S. East Coast.

It's still a little early to know exactly which scenario will pan out, but the second one is currently closer to the official forecast.

Be prepared for strong tropical storm to hurricane conditions tomorrow evening along the Florida East Coast, and finalize hurricane preparations along the rest of the East Coast as well. 

Andy

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9: What's Up With That?

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9

Good Evening Everyone!

You've probably seen we have a tropical system called "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9".  If this is confusing, just know it's a classification the National Hurricane Center added recently to be able to issue their warnings and forecasts for systems that haven't quite yet met all the criteria for being a "tropical cyclone" (i.e. tropical depression/storm).  In this case, PTC 9 does not have a full wind circulation.  It's still a big tropical wave. But it's close to being a tropical storm, and the impacts are the same for now.

Where is the Storm Now?

Image: https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

The system is currently near Puerto Rico, and will move over or near Hispaniola tonight and tomorrow. This adds uncertainty to the forecast, because mountainous islands like that can disrupt forming tropical systems.  But this one is so large that some piece of it seems likely to survive and form a tropical storm soon.  We're just not 100% sure where.

Where is the Storm Going and How Strong Will it Be?

Image: www.weathernerds.org

There is still some uncertainty in the track, because of how big the storm is and the lack of a well-defined center. This can be seen in the "ensemble" set of forecasts above. It is likely to be in the Bahamas and then near Florida this weekend. How close it gets to Florida is tricky. Thankfully, a stronger storm is more likely to turn a little earlier. However, some impact, especially along the East Coast, is possible.  So have your hurricane plan in place just in case. And locations all along the East Coast should be ready as well, because even if PTC9 stays offshore Florida it could possibly impact the East Coast later.

If the storm moves over Hispaniola and Cuba for a while, it may stay weaker, but if it stays offshore, it does have a chance to strengthen into a hurricane.  While it may not be the most likely outcome, it's probably the best bet for people along the East Coast of Florida and northward to prepare for the possibility of a hurricane impact this weekend.

What's the Timing?

Based on current forecasts (which can change!), here's when different places can expect to start seeing impacts, depending on the track of the storm. So keep this in mind as you prepare.

-Bahamas: by tomorrow evening and Friday

-Florida: by late Friday and Saturday

-Carolinas: Saturday into Sunday

-Mid Atlantic: Sunday into Monday

This is a quickly changing situation, so as always check www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest updates!

Andy

Tropics Are Heating Up!

Heads up Everyone - the tropics are heating up! I know that's not what everyone wants to hear with a pandemic still raging across the U.S., but it where we are. My wife says that this is the official theme song of 2020:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJleW4TCQM0

Let's take a broad look at the current tropical threats, from the National Hurricane Center.


Image: www.nhc.noaa.gov

Now, we'll look at them one-by-one.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is a small storm moving across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean.  There is a lot of dry air around it, which is usually bad for hurricanes.

Image: www.weathernerds.org

There is a chance it could still strengthen into a hurricane as it impacts Caribbean Islands like Barbados and the Grenadines. Land masses further west should also keep an eye on it, but chances are it will die out in the Caribbean (that's the current official forecast from NHC). *Fingers crossed* it's not a U.S. threat.

Image: www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Depression Eight (Future T.S. Hanna?)

A more imminent U.S. threat is from TD 8, soon likely to be TS Hanna.  It is currently over the central Gulf of Mexico, slowly gaining strength.

Image: www.tropicaltidbits.com

The system is moving towards South/Central Texas, where it will be a threat for heavy rain and strong winds. It will most likely be a strong tropical storm, but a hurricane cannot be ruled out. Residents along the coast in this area should make preparations now. Tropical Storm Warnings are up.

Image: www.nhc.noaa.gov

New Wave Coming Off Africa

I told you it's heating up! This is the time of year when we have to watch waves coming off Africa as they cross the Atlantic, and some of the models think this wave could develop into something by next week as it moves west. Still a lot of time to watch this one, but we do need to watch it for sure.

Image: www.weathernerds.org

I'll post some more updates as things evolve in the coming days.

As always, get up-to-date official hurricane info from www.nhc.noaa.gov!

Andy

Tropical Storm Fay

New Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay has formed off the East Coast of North Carolina.



This is the 6th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Forecast/Impacts

Fay will move to the north, and bring rain and some gusty winds to parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England.  It may become a moderate to strong Tropical Storm, but (most likely) not a hurricane. Flooding can still be an issue even with weaker storms, though. 

Is this a lot of storms so early?

In short: yes. This is the earliest "F" storm on record by almost 2 weeks.  However, all storms have been relatively weak and short-lived so far (no hurricanes).  In contrast, 2005 (which previously had the earliest "F" storm) had 2 major hurricanes in July.  So it doesn't necessarily mean that a crazy busy year is coming, but other factors do indicate that it will be an active year, so now is a good time to finalize hurricane plans if you live anywhere that can be impacted by a storm.