After one of the most inactive Augusts in recent memory (for the Atlantic; the Pacific was quite active and Hurricane Lane impacted Hawaii with torrential rain), September is looking more active in the Atlantic tropics. There are a few areas of interest. None are an immediate threat, but we'll look at them one by one. As always, official forecasts can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Bahamas Wave
A tropical wave moving through the Bahamas right now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It probably won't get too strong due to some wind shear (strong upper-level winds), but the ECMWF (European) model does show some development before impacting Louisiana. It will likely increase rain chances in Florida, especially Sunday and Monday. The whole Gulf coast needs to pay attention.
Image from www.nhc.noaa.gov
Image from Tropical Tidbits
Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical storm Florence has formed off the coast of Africa. The storm is likely to slowly strengthen over the next few days, and move off towards the West-Northwest. There is quite a bit of long-term spread in the track forecasts for the storm, however. It may very well turn north into the Atlantic well before coming near Bermuda or the U.S., but this is far from set in stone, and this system is worth watching. It is still 10-15 days from being any kind of threat.
Images from weathernerds.org
Other Waves
Finally, the models show the active Atlantic continuing, with a couple more waves coming off Africa behind Florence with a chance to develop. These are even further off from being even a slight threat, but just a reminder that the peak of hurricane season is near, and even though it's been quiet so far, that may not necessarily last. Just keep your eye out and be ready as always!
Let me know if you have any questions!
Andy
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