Florence Approaches The Coast; Isaac Worth Watching; a Possible New System in the Western Gulf

Hello all,

Hurricane Florence is heading towards the SE US Coast as a Category 4 Hurricane.  The storm is menacing and powerful:


Image From NASA


Here is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center:



Hurricane watches are up for most of the coasts of SC and NC, and people living in these areas, and even down to coastal Georgia, need to finalize their hurricane plans.  While the worst surge and wind will be along the coast, people inland need to take this seriously, too.  The storm will be slowing down, and rainfall amounts could be very high.  Inland flooding is one of the most deadly parts of hurricanes, so be prepared if you live inland. As you can see, NOAA is predicting inches to even feet of rain well inland:



Tropical Storm Isaac is also worth watching.  The storm is not particularly well organized at the moment, but could bring some strong winds and heavy rain to the Caribbean Islands. Hurricane Watches are in effect for the Lesser Antilles.  The storm may weaken in the Caribbean, but it's too early to say if it will fully dissipate, so just keep an eye on it in the US!



Finally, there is a system being watched near the Yucatan peninsula for possible development.  It may become a tropical storm over the Western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and could bring heavy rain to southern Texas and northern Mexico, as you can see in the rainfall forecast above.  Here is the current satellite picture of the system:



Image From NASA

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy

Florence a Major Threat, Isaac Worth Watching

Hello all,

Hurricane Florence is a major threat to the US East Coast.  Here's the latest 5-day track cone from the National Hurricane Center:



The storm is forecast to strengthen quickly starting tomorrow, and will likely become a major hurricane sometime early next week.  Right now, models are starting to hone in on the closest approach and potential landfall being in the Carolinas, but there is still enough spread (see below) that anyone between NE Florida and the mid-Atlantic needs to continue watching it.  I would begin to make hurricane preparations if I lived along the Carolinas coastline.


Image from www.weathernerds.org

Tropical Storm Isaac has formed out in the Central Atlantic.  It is forecast to slowly strengthen and may become a hurricane next week.  Right now, the forecast brings it into the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane in 5 days.  The storm could weaken in the Caribbean due to strong wind shear, but should be watched warily in the Southern US in case it survives. 



The Atlantic remains active, so just be on alert, and again if you live near the projected path of Florence make sure to begin preparations now!

Andy

Hurricane Florence Threatens East Coast, Active Atlantic Behind

Hi all,

As I mentioned, the Atlantic is heating up quite a bit, and there is a storm to watch near Hawaii again!  There have been several storms recently, with some ongoing.  I'll take them one at a time.



TS Gordon
Gordon made landfall as a 70-mph Tropical Storm near the Mississippi/Alabama border.  This area is quite used to tropical systems, and thankfully the storm didn't do much damage (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/us/gordon-storm-updates.html).  Sadly, however, a child was killed by a tree falling on a mobile home.  This shows that mobile homes are not safe in any tropical system, no matter the intensity.

Hurricane Florence
Florence is by far the biggest threat in the Atlantic right now.  The storm rapidly intensified into a Category 4 storm, but then weakened just as quickly to a tropical storm, due to strong upper-level winds.  However, the atmosphere looks very favorable for it to reintensify back into a strong hurricane.  The computer models we use to predict the weather are starting to suggest that the storm will stay on a westerly heading, potentially threatening the U.S. East Coast next week.


Image From www.weathernerds.org

The most likely scenarios at this point are an impact in the Carolinas or a close brush before moving offshore.  However, there are still possibilities on the table ranging from an impact in N Florida to turning out to sea.  Everyone from Florida to New England should at least be thinking about your hurricane plan, and potentially get ready to implement it as things become more certain this weekend.  Here is the official 5-day track from the National Hurricane Center, the place to go for official hurricane information:


Image From www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Olivia (Pacific)
Hawaii already dealt with a close blow from Hurricane Lane recently, and now Hurricane Olivia may make a close approach and potentially a direct impact. 


Image From www.tropicaltidbits.com

The storm should be weakening as it approaches Hawaii, but could still be strong enough to cause major problems.  Now is a good time to start getting prepared in the Hawaiian Islands.

Wave #1 in the Atlantic
A wave in the Central Atlantic is close to becoming a tropical depression or storm.  It could be named Helene or Isaac (depending on if it forms before or after the next wave).


Image From https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov

This wave is still too far out to tell much about where it will end up, but it's starting fairly far south and could end up in the Caribbean, which has had a lot of tropical cyclone impacts the last two years (with Matthew in 2016 and Irma and Maria in 2017).  Definitely something to watch over the next week.


Wave #2 in the Atlantic
Finally, a very strong wave is moving off of Africa.  It may become a depression or storm (again, racing the other wave to get named first!) very soon.  It's even further out and may well turn out to sea over the Atlantic, but it's too early to say that for sure. We have even more time to watch this one.


Image From www.weathernerds.org

In summary, the Atlantic is very active right now, with Florence a major potential threat to the US, and two other systems behind to watch.  Now is a good time to review your hurricane plan, know your evacuation zone if you live near the coast or in a flood-prone area, and be prepared to take action, especially along the US East Coast.  

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy

Atlantic Becoming a Little More Active

Hello Everyone!

After one of the most inactive Augusts in recent memory (for the Atlantic; the Pacific was quite active and Hurricane Lane impacted Hawaii with torrential rain), September is looking more active in the Atlantic tropics.  There are a few areas of interest.  None are an immediate threat, but we'll look at them one by one.  As always, official forecasts can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Bahamas Wave

A tropical wave moving through the Bahamas right now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico early next week.  It probably won't get too strong due to some wind shear (strong upper-level winds), but the ECMWF (European) model does show some development before impacting Louisiana.  It will likely increase rain chances in Florida, especially Sunday and Monday.  The whole Gulf coast needs to pay attention.


Image from www.nhc.noaa.gov



Image from Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical storm Florence has formed off the coast of Africa.  The storm is likely to slowly strengthen over the next few days, and move off towards the West-Northwest.  There is quite a bit of long-term spread in the track forecasts for the storm, however.  It may very well turn north into the Atlantic well before coming near Bermuda or the U.S., but this is far from set in stone, and this system is worth watching.  It is still 10-15 days from being any kind of threat.





Images from weathernerds.org

Other Waves

Finally, the models show the active Atlantic continuing, with a couple more waves coming off Africa behind Florence with a chance to develop.  These are even further off from being even a slight threat, but just a reminder that the peak of hurricane season is near, and even though it's been quiet so far, that may not necessarily last.  Just keep your eye out and be ready as always!

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy