Hurricane Lane Threatens Hawaii

A Hurricane in Hawaii?!?

It can happen.  The image below shows all the hurricanes since the late 1800s to come within 200 miles of Hawaii (see https://www.coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/):

As you can see, it's rare, but it happens!  The strongest of these was Hurricane Iniki (http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/36315106/hurricane-iniki-quick-facts-about-hawaiis-most-powerful-storm), which impacted the island in 1992.

Currently, Hurricane Lane is threatening the state, and models have recently shifted to show a path near or over the islands.  This is the current forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

Lane is currently a very strong Category 4 storm (borderline Category 5) with 155 mph winds.  It may weaken some before approaching the islands, but could still be a very dangerous system with the potential to bring storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rain to multiple islands.

If you have friends, family, or other interests in Hawaii, make sure they are prepared for the hurricane!  Hopefully the worst will stay offshore, but a direct impact is possible, and bad weather is likely even if it doesn't directly hit.

The storm is well-observed, at least, and several of my colleagues from HRD are flying research missions into the storm:

https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1031420462021128192

Feel free to let me know if you have any specific questions!

Andy

Colorado State's Updated Seasonal Forecast

Hello everyone,

One of the most well-known forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity is from Colorado State University.  It was started by the late Dr. Bill Gray (my academic great-great grand-advisor), and continued by Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell.  They issue forecasts at the start of hurricane season, and update them again at the beginning of August, prior to the typically active part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (the season runs June-November, but the most active period by far is, on average, mid-August through mid-October).

This year's seasonal forecast from CSU has been released.  It is available at:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/08/2018-08.pdf

You can read the details there if you are curious.  Basically, there are a few key points.

1) The Atlantic is cooler than usual.
2) The Pacific is warming, heading towards a possible El Niño, which causes wind shear (see my first blog) that hampers Atlantic hurricanes.
3) Because of 1) and 2), the Atlantic is expected to be less active than usual this year.  In fact, CSU's model predicts some of the lowest activity since the very quiet years of the early 1990s.
4) ****This is the most important reminder*****.  Despite seasonal activity probably being below-average, it is impossible to predict an individual hurricane this far out.  Hurricane Andrew occurred in 1992, in a year that was otherwise very inactive.  So keep your guard up as we head into the peak of the season.

Let me know if you have any questions!

Andy