Invest 94L in the Central Atlantic
Overview
Happy Friday evening everyone! There is a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic ("Invest 94L") that bears watching. It's pretty early for stuff to develop out there but this has a chance to develop as it approaches the Caribbean. Side note - what is an "Invest"? Basically - that's what NHC calls a disturbance that they think *might* form into a tropical depression or more, but it's not organized enough yet. In this case, they are giving it a 60% (medium) chance of becoming a TD within 5 days:
Image 1: NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook From 2pm Friday, June 24, 2022
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Forecast for 94L
Right now the system is fairly disorganized. It will take some time to get together. Most models are bringing it into the Southern Caribbean. It could even get close to the "ABC Islands", which is pretty rare ever, especially this time of year. We'll have to see. Conditions look favorable ahead of it but it may take some time to get organized. Down the road, it could head towards Nicaragua and Honduras, or the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Too far out to say if it will be a US threat at all, but hopefully the big ridge of high pressure that's made things so darn hot over the Southern US will also act to keep this south of the states.
Image 2: Infrared satellite image of Invest 94L as of 5:15 PM EDT on Friday, June 24, 2022
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite
Image 3: ECMWF "ensemble" for Invest 94L, showing some of the possible tracks in the Caribbean. This will likely change some over time.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html
So in summary, nothing to panic about now, but a good reminder to make sure your hurricane plan is ready to go, as we approach the peak of hurricane season! Always pay attention to www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest, official information. Stay safe out there!
Andy
